Newsletter

Don't miss a thing!

We regularly provide you with the most important news, articles, topics, projects and ideas for One World – No Hunger.

Please also refer to our data protection declaration.

'It has never been more possible'

2020-10-09

Over a period of two years, the Ceres2030 team spent researching answers to the questions of how much it will how much it will cost to realize SDG 2 and where that money should be spent most effectively. IISD Senior Advisor and Ceres2030 Co-director Carin Smaller about small farmers, machine learning and women empowerment.

What is the starting point of “Ceres2030”?

Five years ago the world came together and agreed to these global goals. And one of them was the most important one: to end hunger. But people have tried to solve this problem for decades now. The interesting about “goal 2” is that it wants to end hunger with a strong focus on small farmers and small producers in the poorest countries – and trying to end hunger in ways that are consistent with our climate commitments and with our environmental goals.

And what is the significance of the study?

When this goal was launched as part of the Agenda 2030, there was a realisation that there is not enough evidence about how we could actually improve the incomes and the productivity of the farmers in these poor countries, mostly in Africa, nor how to do it in a way that would promote sustainable agriculture and resilient food systems. The question was: Do we have answers, what is the best way to improve farmers’ incomes doing it in an environmentally sustainably way – and what it is going to cost?

Who asked?

The BMZ and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation came to us and said: We want you to use the highest standards in research and economic modelling to provide answers to these questions.

It is really important for policy makers to be able to make decisions with the evidence they have. They need to know where to direct their public spending.

Why are the costs being asked specifically?

It is really important for policy makers to be able to make decisions with the evidence they have. They need to know where to direct their public spending. And that is as much important for donors as for the countries themselves. It is no good just knowing what needs to be done if you don’t know the scale of the budget you need to achieve the goal. So, the cost is there to help say: This is what needs to be done and this is what we can confidently say to scale the resources in order to achieve it.

You said, the study focuses on increasing the income and productivity of small farmers - why?

Because, paradoxically, these are the people who are most likely to experience hunger. They are the people who are most often left out of economic growth and least likely to benefit from technological change. And they are the people who are most often left out of political decision making. This represents one of the largest and most vulnerable groups and those who are struggling at most. Importantly, they are also the group that is most vulnerable to climate change.

More and more people are suffering from hunger. Is the goal of "Zero Hunger 2030" becoming increasingly distant?

Absolutely not. This is so achievable and so within reach – it has never been more possible. If you look what is happening in the world today, you see governments spending unprecedented amounts of money in response to Covid-19 – the cost of achieving the end of hunger is going to be a fraction of what it is costing now in response to the pandemic. We were surprised how achievable this goal really is. It is not going to require a huge and impossible effort. It is really doable.

Conflicts contribute to hunger, too. Climate change is taking place heavily. How do you cope with that?

There have been always conflicts, and they will always be a source of increasing hunger. This is the reality and we know from the last few years that a big chunk of the rise in hunger has been in conflict areas. But you still have dozens of countries who are conflict free and who have unacceptable levels of hunger. This is where we really have to make progress. That does not mean that we are not interested in the people who live in conflict areas, but there is a particular pattern of investment you need when you see that hunger levels rise because of a conflict. It is often an access issue, like other people in these areas preventing people from getting food or using hunger as a tool. You need totally different forms of spending to access.

In the study, you write down everything that still needs to be done. Can you express in percent how much has already been done?

There has been a huge amount of attention and investment in solving this problem – but it has not been enough. The additional efforts that are needed, are totally within the scope of our political leaders and it is not wild and crazy what we are putting forward.

You use modeling as a method - what are the advantages?

People want to know how much it is going to cost them so solve problems – like ending hunger. Especially when you are speaking to governments, whether to donors or in the countries with high levels of hunger. What the model helps us to do is to assess: Okay, here are your targets, you want, by example, to double income of your farmers – how much does it cost and what is the most effective way doing it? The model at the most basic level will generate the sense of the resources you need. And because it uses existing data sources, we know what has been spent on this issue in the past, let us say how much it takes to spend money on research and development of a new crop variety. So we know what it costs, put these parameters in the model and we can tell you how many crop varieties you need to spend money on. Our model tries to spend money in the most cost effective way and in the most optimal way. We are not just going to ask 20 countries, all of them in the same region, to increase production of wheat and more food for people. We are going to make sure that the investments are smart, that it fits for everyone and that it increases income and that it does not create these unattended consequences where actually no one is better off.

What does the model have in mind?

Our model has interactions that occur between all levels of an economy, across different sectors of the economy and between countries. So we can be sure that you are not going to be asking Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia and Malawi to all increase production in the same crop. There will be a complementary strategy that the producers in the countries all can make money, can all improve their productivity but do it in a way where there is actually a market demand. This particular type of model that we use is a general equilibrium model that allows us to see the interactions. Everything interacts with each other – and the costs are much more cost effective and optimal.

And what does the model not do?

It is not giving you the roadmap to ending hunger. That work still has to be done at the country level with the countries’ stakeholders, civil society, farmers, private sector; all we can give you is a scale of the resources that is going to be required and the types of things that the money should be spent on. But the detail, i.e. what, how much and where has to happen on the country level.

Are there any scales that are not covered by machine learning?

The machine learning that we use in Ceres does not calculate costs. The machine scans all the literature that has been written on the subject. That is the beauty of the machine! It says: Okay, we look at 60 databases, we look at all articles that have been written about small scale producers and environmental issues around agriculture, and we will figure out which one is the most relevant and then we give our research teams the most relevant ones. We will all be quite overwhelmed by how much has been written in the past 20 years.

How much?

There has been hundreds and thousands of articles written that our machine was able to find in these 60 databases.

How much time would it take without a machine to absorb this literature?

Six, seven years. At least three times of the time that took us.

Despite 20 years of discourse around the need to promote gender equality, there is actually very little attention which is being paid to solve this problem.

How important is it to empower women?

This is probably one of the biggest lessons that is going to come from this study. Despite 20 years of discourse around the need to promote gender equality and women’s empowerment, there is actually very little attention which is being paid to solve this problem in the literature. We all know it is crucial. We are not the ones who put it on the map because it is already known, but it is worrying that despite all the talk about the importance of it how little attention it has been given in the research community.

What is the role of fertilizers and synthetic pesticides – and what about the meaning of ecological agriculture?

We don’t put forward the one and only model of agriculture that you need to promote. Our study was to look at the evidence saying about what works and how much it is going to cost. We don’t have a preference. But you will see, when the findings will come out, that a lot of people looked at ecological methods of farming and the model even includes an intervention around agroforestry to help improve livestock productivity.

Do you expect resistance to the findings of the study?

Resistance is maybe not the word I would use, but I want to encourage a very critical look at our findings and a debate on it.

Go back

"Pandemic increases violence against women"

Interview with Léa Rouanet

African countries still face huge gender gaps in terms of access to work and capital. What are the consequences of Corona for women in Africa? Jan Rübel interviewed Léa Rouanet on lockdowns and gender-based violence. The economist works at the Africa Gender Innovation Lab of the World Bank.

How much private investment is the agricultural sector able to bear?

By Pedro Morazán

Small farmers in developing countries must modernise their farming methods, but poorly understood reforms could exacerbate poverty instead of alleviating it.

No dirty dealing

Von Marlis Lindecke

Shit Business is Serious Business: A successful cooperation between research and the private sector.

The Big Bang is possible

Interview with Joachim von Braun

Happy youngsters in rural areas, green development and the connection to the digital age – professor Joachim von Braun believes in this future sceneraio for Africa. For three decades the agricultural scienties has been researching how politics can create prosperty on the continent.

5 Questions for Gunther Beger (BMZ): What must be done?

Interview with Gunther Beger (BMZ)

How much will it cost to sustainably end world hunger by 2030? This question was posed by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) that commissioned two research teams with finding an answer. The results of the studies will be presented on October 13 in the run-up to World Food Day.

Is the international community still on track in the fight against hunger?

Interview with Miriam Wiemers (Welthungerhilfe)

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2020 shows that the world is not on track to meet the international goal of “zero hunger by 2030”. If we continue at our current speed, around 37 countries will not even have reached a low hunger level by 2030.

"Agricultural research unties the Gordian knot"

Interview with World Bank Vice President Voegele

The CGIAR agricultural research organization is systematically repositioning itself. We spoke with Juergen Voegele, Vice President for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, about progress to date - and discuss what needs to be done collectively to stop global hunger in ten years.

GFFA 2021 focussed on climate and COVID-19

A report by David Sahay (Zeitenspiegel)

110 speakers from 120 countries met virtually at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) to discuss the challenges to global food supply. They asked the question: How can food systems support the health of people and the planet?

“We have to prepare for the unexpected”

Interview with Dr Maria Flachsbarth (BMZ)

In August, Germany’s development ministry set up a division concentrating on One Health topics. Parliamentary State Secretary Maria Flachsbarth on knowledge gaps at the human-animal-environmental interface, the link between One Health and food security, and lessons learnt from previous pandemics.

5 Questions for Jann Lay: What is Corona doing to the economy?

Interview with Jann Lay (GIGA)

The Corona pandemic is hitting economies around the world very hard - but developments in African countries are quite diverse. There are different speeds, resiliences and vulnerabilities. What are the reasons for this? Apl. Prof. Jann Lay of the GIGA Institute provides answers.

Video: 4 Questions to Claudia Makdristo

A video clip by Seedstars

Startups are booming in African agriculture. What are the current trend and challenges – and can other regions benefit from innovative approaches? A Video-Interview with Claudia Makadristo, Regional Manager of Seedstars

Turning many into one: CGIAR network restructures

A contribution by Jan Rübel

International agricultural research is responding to new challenges: Their advisory group is undergoing a fundamental reform process and unites knowledge, partnerships and physical assets into OneCGIAR.

"Farmers are smart"

Interview with Maria Andrade

From the lab to the masses: Maria Andrade bred varieties of biofortified sweet potatoes which are now widely used all over the continent. She sets her hope on the transformation of African agriculture.

Leveraging investment impacts

A contribution by Heike Baumüller, Christine Husmann, Julia Machovsky-Smid, Oliver Kirui, Justice Tambo

Any initiative whose aim is to reduce poverty in Africa should focus first on agriculture. But what kind of investment has the greatest impact? The use of scientific criteria provides some answers.

Small-scale farmers’ responses to COVID-19 related restrictions

A study by SLE

The lockdown due to COVID-19 hit the economy hard - including agriculture in particular with its supply chains and sales markets. What creative coping strategies have those affected found? The Seminar for Rural Development has begun a research study on th

"We must mobilise all available resources"

A contribution by Ismahane Elouafi (ICBA)

Freshwater deficits are affecting more and more people throughout the world. In order to counter this, our global food system will have to change, our author maintains. A case for more research on alternative crops and smart water solutions.

Karel Prinsloo/Arete/Rockefeller Foundation/AGRA

"Nutrition is a human right"

Interview with Joe DeVries (AGRA)

Joe DeVries is a breeder – and Vice President of AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa). What are the chances and risks of a ’green revolution‘ in Africa? A discourse between Jan Rübel and him about productivity, needs, and paternalism.

ONE WORLD no hunger - Meet the people driving rural transformation

A program by the partners of the special initiative One World no Hunger

The future is rural. On September 24, meet leaders and visionaries from Africa and South Asia who will enter into dialogue with european key actors.

Join uns here to meet the people.

Continent in an uptrend

A report by Dr. Agnes Kalibata (AGRA)

Partnering for Africa’s Century: Innovation and Leadership as Drivers of Growth and Productivity in Rural Areas

A new attempt at Africa's industrialization?

A contribution by Helmut Asche

Afrika is about ready. There are promising approaches for a sustainable industrialization. However, the path poses challenges to the continent.

The Rice Sector in West Africa: A Political Challenge

New insights on trade and value addition in the rice sector in West Africa

Low import tariffs, smuggling activities, unpredictable tax exemptions and weak enforcement of food safety standards: The potential of local rice value chains is undermined in West African countries.

City, Country, Sea: 6 Innovations in the Fight Against Climate Change

A listicle for climate-neutral agriculture

Vertically growing plants, magnetic cotton. Hairy leftovers fertilizing fields, tractors running on algae? These six innovations could lead agriculture’s next Green Revolution!

What is Our Food Worth to Us?

A Contribution by the TMG Think Tank for Sustainability

Towards integrated accounting standards in the food and farming sector with the help of True Cost Accounting (TCA).

COVID-19 and Rising Food Prices: What’s Really Happening?

A Contribution by IFPRI

Taking a look at the data (as of February 11th 2022) what the current price hike means for world hunger and what can be done to prevent from another food crisis.

For a just transition to a sustainable planet we must secure land rights

A contribution by TMG

At the UNCCD COP15, the Töpfer Müller Gaßner Think Tank (TMG) hosted four side events. The agenda of the kick-off event included discussions for the Human Rights and Land Navigator.

A New Mindset to Reform Agriresearch

A Contribution by Lennart Woltering (CGIAR)

In context of the 15th CGIAR System Council Meeting, Lennart Woltering shares his assessment of the ongoing One CGIAR reform process.

Diversity Is the Fundamental Principle to Use

An Interview with Shakuntala Thilsted

A conversation with aquatic researcher Shakuntala Thilsted on the long-neglected nutrition benefits of aquatic diets and the empowering qualities of a sustainable aqua-food systems transformation.

Policy against disasters

Interview with Thomas Loster

Insurance companies could provide protection during droughts in Africa. How exactly this could be done is what the industry is currently trying to figure out. First experiences are available. An interview with the Managing Director of the Munich Re Foundation, Thomas Loster

„You must be multisectoral in your thinking”

Interview with Adriano Campolina (FAO)

For years, place-based approaches to development have been considered important features in development cooperation, at the BMZ and in FAO. Both organisations are aiming at advancing these approaches: an interview with Adriano Campolina from the FAO on territorial and landscape perspectives.

Controversy: Do supply chains need liability rules?

Discussion about the potential supply chain law

The German government is struggling to pass a supply chain law. It is intended to address violations of human rights, social and environmental standards. What would the consequences be for business? A double interview with Veselina Vasileva from GEPA and economics professor Andreas Freytag.

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES FOR MORE SOIL CONSERVATION

With the help of sustainable farming methods, soils can be preserved and made fertile again. The investment required is also worthwhile from a financial perspective.

A project of GIZ

More than just a seat at the table

A contribution by Welthungerhilfe

Africa is home to the world’s youngest and fastest growing population. For many young people, agriculture could offer a job perspective. But to improve the living conditions and job prospects of young people in rural areas, political reforms and investments are desperately needed, as these people will be at the centre of agriculture and agricultural development in the future.

Pesticides – a blessing or a curse?

A debate between Lena Luig and Ludger Weß

What are the consequences of using synthetic pesticides in agriculture? Where do they help, where do they harm? Lena Luig, expert for the development policy organization INKOTA, and science journalist Ludger Weß discuss this controversial topic of international scope.

Visions in agriculture

Video by Frank Schultze and Jan Rübel

At the beginning of December 2018, AGRA's board of directors met in Berlin. The "Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa" panel discussed the next steps in their policy of modernizing agriculture. How to go on in the next ten years? One question - many answers from experts.

Wanted: German investment in African agriculture

Interview with Stefan Liebing

Stefan Liebing is chairman of the Africa Association of German Business. The manager calls for a better structure of African farms. Jan Rübel asked him about small farmers, the opportunities for German start-ups and a new fund.

Global responsibility: Tackling hunger is the only way forward

A contribution by Lisa Hücking (WHH)

Chancellor Merkel has begun an ambitious European political programme: Striving for compromise in budget negotiations, an orderly Brexit as well as an appropriate response to the corona crisis. Unfortunately, one of her positions that she previously held is nowhere to be found: Africa's prosperity is in the interest of Europe.

Africa's face of agriculture is female

A contribution by Beatrice Gakuba (AWAN-AFRIKA)

Africa has a huge opportunity to make agriculture its economic driver. However, the potential for this is far from being made exhaustive use of, one reason being that women face considerable difficulties in their economic activities. The organisation AWAN Afrika seeks to change this state of affairs.

A partnership to fight hunger

A contribution by GAFSP

The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) was launched by the G20 countries in 2010 in response to the 2008-09 food price crisis to increase both public and private investment in agriculture. An overview of the programme's approach, results and impact.

Innovations for a secure food supply

A contribution by German Agribusiness Alliance

The COVID 19 pandemic is hitting developing and emerging countries and their poorest populations particularly hard. It is important to take countermeasures at an early stage. Companies in the German agricultural sector want to make their contribution to ensuring the availability of urgently needed operating resources.

News from the starting block: Changeover

A contribution by Michael Brüntrup (DIE)

The region of Sub-Saharan Africa is on the decisive verge of a great development boost in farming: it could skip entire generations of technological development. But how? About possible roles and potentials of digital services.

"The Green Revolution reaches its limits"

Interview with Stig Tanzmann (BfdW)

Stig Tanzmann is a farmer and adviser on agricultural issues at ‘Bread for the World’. Jan Rübel interviewed him about his reservations about AGRA's strategy.